Idahoan voters in favor of moving the Oregon/Idaho border outnumber Idahoan voters who are opposed by 1.4 to 1, according to a scientific poll of 1100 Idahoan voters by Trafalgar Group. 51% were in favor, 35% opposed, and 14% undecided.
Among Idahoans who had voted in a recent Republican primary, 2.3 times as many were in favor as opposed: 59% were in favor, 26% opposed, and 15% undecided. Republican primary elections are important in Idaho, where 80% of the state legislators are Republican.
In addition, when asked about adding counties that are “very similar to Idaho in voting patterns, and would help the state financially,” voters in favor outnumbered voters opposed by two to one, and Republican primary voters in favor outnumbered those opposed almost four to one. Citizens for Greater Idaho argues that this question is very relevant because the area they wish to add to Idaho is indeed “very similar to Idaho in voting patterns, and would help the state financially.” Citizens for Greater Idaho’s website says their tabulation reveals that this area voted 61.65% in favor of Trump, averaged over 2016 and 2020, whereas Idaho voted 61.57% in favor.
Citizens for Greater Idaho has also tabulated US government BEA statistics showing that the territory to be added to Idaho had 99% of the per capita personal income of Idaho’s averaged over the last three years. The website of Citizens for Greater Idaho, greateridaho.org, says “Under Idaho’s low taxes and low regulation, those counties’ economy will surge so that they become a big benefit to Idaho’s budget. Idaho can approve projects at the deep-water port at Coos Bay and tax those projects.”
Surprisingly, compassion was a strong motivating factor in the poll results. When asked what benefits seemed most important, 47% chose “Idaho would be protecting Oregon counties from Portland politicians”, 35% chose “adding prosperous counties to Idaho would help Idaho’s budget, which means Idaho tax rates could be reduced,” and 19% chose “Oregon laws and drug sales would be pushed farther away from where I live.” In a similar question, 33% chose “it would give Idaho room to grow, so it would take some pressure off of Idaho’s housing market and traffic problems.”
“Trafalgar Group is widely recognized as one of America’s most consistently accurate and trusted pollsters,” wrote Tom Bevan of Real Clear Politics.
Voting on the Greater Idaho issue in Harney County Oregon ends on November 2. In October, the Oregon Attorney General filed a lawsuit against Harney County for its Second Amendment sanctuary ordinance. “This is not just about locking up firearms. It’s about the right of a county to respect the right of people to carry a defense. We call on Harney County to vote in favor of Greater Idaho to defend the second amendment,” said Mike McCarter, president of Citizens for Greater Idaho. Idaho is a Second Amendment sanctuary state. 14 of the 18 counties of eastern and southern Oregon are Second Amendment sanctuary counties.
Oregonians were not polled by Trafalgar Group, but a weighted OVBC poll of OVBC survey subscribers in June found Oregonians undecided on the issue. In May, all five counties that voted on the issue voted in favor, averaging 62% in favor, 38% opposed. Two counties voted in favor in November 2020.